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Not too many years ago, I could confidently stroll through store after store, quickly identify what was new, where its pricing was situated, estimate retailer margins that usually drove initial placement, what the packaging tried to imply, and make solid guesses as to the longevity and success probability. I was not always on target, but seldom was I too far off.
Well, times have changed, as have I. For this article, I slowly sidled through some 30 area stores, saw product that reminded me of the seventies and eighties, and came away with scary conclusions. No emerging Crock-Pot, Iced Tea Machine, or Foreman Grill jumped out at me. Changes were mostly in color, sizes, and trade-up attachments, but nothing displayed was radical or groundbreaking. So much for product, but we will cover some specifics later.
I concluded that lots of hard work in the industry has yielded insignificant and perhaps, zero sum gains.

The Economic View
The nation enjoys a stable, solid, but not bubbling economy. Finally, we are beginning to understand the impact of China's growth on the world and Wal-Mart's positive and negative role in it. On one hand, jobs have been taken away from American workers by the ongoing demand for lower costs. On the other hand, it appears that only China's seemingly unending low-cost supply of competent labor can provide the lower costs now enjoyed. Everyone now follows this model, like it or not.
If you have not read China Inc. by Ted Fishman, find it and take it to heart. Huge chunks of the world's cement, steel, machine tools, and soft goods are feeding China's factories and resources to serve American markets. Wal-Mart is adding 1,000 stores and probably another 400,000 employees to better serve their markets, including groceries.

A Retail View
Macy's brand will soon cover their piece of the nation as Federated gobbled up May even before they digested Marshall Field's. Burp! Just the long-overdue combining of Macy's East and Macy's West for home store merchandising makes serious gains possible. Bigger stores may buy out Canadian ones and make a truer North American market.
Whether K-Mart and Sears ever do anything but make their owners very rich is doubtful, but they remain in business and serve a distinct group of blue-collar customers. Quality retailers like Sharper Image; Best Buy; Bed, Bath & Beyond; Linens 'n Things; Williams-Sonoma; Crate & Barrel; HomeGoods; Container Store; and the TV shopping networks all seem to be prospering. Sur La Table is expanding into NYC's Soho. Existing web sites are being expanded and new ones are being developed.
Martha has survived her servitude and should return with a force. To the contrary, private label is again further stimulated, especially house brands due to increased ease of resourcing and low costs at quality constructions. Both vendors and stores are using celebrity licensing for instant recognition of product lines and coordinating them with renewed crossover marketing actions, employing better-known brandings to open other category sales.

Product Categories
One of the problems and joys of being around for such a long time is seeing cycles recycle and knowing that "everything old is new again." It is easy to forget that new consumers do not share the same time frame perspective and to them, old is actually new.
I took a good look at some basic categories, made some informative industry inquiries, and am passing along my conclusions to you.

COFFEEMAKERS — Pod-based single-serving units are the growth hope but are fully dependent upon broad pod placement and better pod pricing. Colors are fun. Retail has provided wide placement, but consumers remain somewhat weary. Standard drips remain stable without much growth or excitement. Industrial finishes dominate. Thermal carafes seemed a great idea but have not excited the basic coffee drinker yet. The espresso stimuli driven by Starbucks may have run its course as units are expensive and cater to those who both appreciate and are willing to invest in the claimed qualitative differences provided.

FOOD PROCESS–ORS — Aggressive and forward-thinking food retailers have provided much food product already prepared. Volume demand is stable but flat. More than half of the processor users just dice and chop. The processor remains a primary bridal gift, although today's working bride eats out more than in. It still looks very sophisticated on your countertop.

INDOOR GRILLS — Where is George when you need him? Actually the magnificent past success of Foreman grills has contributed to a decline in industry numbers as the dominate Foreman products catch a breather. The "Irrational Exuberance" of the Foreman grill period was, for most companies, a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence.

BAKEWARE — Coming off a pretty good 2004, some solid life appears in the old horse yet. Despite carb-intake reductions and obesity concerns, cookie and cake baking is up. The colored silicone units have provided some interest and so far have been a margin improvement play by retail vs. the lower-margined metal products. Trends appear to be rising.

COOKWARE — Flat as usual and a zero sum game at wholesale. A new player's gain is an older player's loss. So long as new players continue to want in and spend to get in, retailers award placement until this newest line is spent out and return their own brands or old stand-bys back into more space.
Due to house brand proliferation and pricing, a serious demise of known brands has occurred in the lower-cost 60 percent of the business. Gone, really, are Revere, Regal, Enterprise, Club, Wearever, Mirro, West Bend, Ekco, and others. The business is like being on a down escalator trying to go up. You need to go faster just to stay in the same place and soon, are burned out.
Anodized has gained a little share at the expense of stainless. Steel prices have risen faster than aluminum, ala China's need for stainless. Nonstick still dominates. Enamel seems to enjoy broader placement due to color and some newer unit shapes. Copper has never been a major factor. Multimetal con-structions prevail and keep costing high.

CUTLERY — Always end on a high note. Business is growing. Better performances, longer-lasting sharper edges, neater designs, and specialty knives driven by celebrity cooks have all combined to yield up increasing dollar and unit volumes. Yea!

Once again, Jack Eikenberg, who is reachable at JMEmgmt.com, phone – 239-498-0040, and fax – 239-948-3297, has foisted his views on your world. Your thoughts are always appreciated and answered promptly.