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Fueled by smaller portion sizes, innovative donuts and pies, and bake-off production, in-store supermarket bakeries climbed through the first half of 2011, according to What’s in Store 2012, the newly released annual trends publication from the International Dairy-Deli-Bakery Association (IDDBA).

Mini-portion sizes of pies, cupcakes and cake pops are a hot trend, as they retail at lower price points and typically carry less of a caloric impact compared to their full-size counterparts. Also, free-from products are gaining popularity. Foods free of gluten, nuts, allergens, and animal products are hot items, as are organic and non-GMO products.

Consumers want a wider array of sweet desserts, including gourmet and wacky donuts, crème puffs and
sweet crepes. Donuts span the flavor spectrum, from novel to sophisticated. Wacky donuts, such as those topped with Fruit Loops and Rice Krispie treats, are the kiddie counterpart to more sophisticated donuts, like those filled with fresh fruit preserves or gourmet chocolate.

Pies are available in a plethora of shapes and sizes, including pie pops on sticks, upside-down pies, and pies baked in canning jars.

Flavor is as vital. Sweet, hot, salty, and tart combinations are popular. For example, baby back rib cupcakes combine sweet and savory.

Production
More stores today offer fresh-baked breads produced on-site. Bake-off is the most favored in-store bakery (ISB) production method, with 32.2 percent of bakeries reporting it as their primary production method. However, scratch baking has made a significant comeback. Nearly 16 percent of surveyed bakery operators said scratch baking best defined their production method in 2010, nearly double the 8.1 percent reported five years ago, according to The Gourmet Retailer’s sister magazine, Progressive Grocer.

Shopper demographics
Bakery products have 91 percent household penetration, according to Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire data. More than half of retailers surveyed said the at-home eating movement boosted sales in the 52 weeks ending March 31, 2011.

U.S. shoppers made 12 ISB purchase trips on average in the 52 weeks ending May 31, 2011. Sixteen percent of all grocery transactions included at least one bakery item. Roughly 12 percent of households bought more than one bakery item, according to Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights. Singles are less likely to buy bakery products, which tend to be sold in multi-serving packages.

According to Perishables Consumer Profiles, White/Caucasian consumers make up 75 percent of bakery consumers in top stores. Hispanic consumers also have a strong shopping index for in-store bakeries. The growing Hispanic population will noticeably impact ISB sales. Couples with no children and older consumers are more likely than households with children to visit in-store bakeries.

The 26th edition of What's in Store 2012, is a 200+ page trends report that details consumer and industry trends in the dairy case, cheese case, bakery, deli and foodservice supermarket departments. The cost is $99 for IDDBA members and $399 for non-members, plus shipping and handling. For more information, visit www.iddba.org.