-By Faith Popcorn

Faith Popcorn is a visionary. The New York Times has called her "the trend oracle" and she is recognized as America's foremost Trend expert. She correctly predicted the demand for fresh foods and four-wheel drives, as well as the spiritual tenor of the millennium (The Anchoring Trend). She was the first to anticipate the explosive growth in home delivery, home businesses and home shopping (The Armored Cocoon). Her hour-long seminar, which focuses on how future Trends are affecting consumer lifestyles and purchasing behavior, has been presented to thousands of audiences across the globe.

As founder of BrainReserve, her future-focused marketing consultancy, she helps companies look at the present from the other end of the telescope to make critical business decisions today. Faith applies her insight regarding cultural and business Trends to help BrainReserve clients reposition established brands or companies, develop new products, and define areas of new business opportunity.

Q. There seems to be a shift in consumer purchasing, what do you believe are the strongest influences influencing consumer purchasing this year?
A. The uber-current driving consumer spending is a clear sense of unease regarding the direction of the economy. In our own quantitative research among 1,105 random and representative Americans at the end of last year, a full one-third agreed completely with the statement, "I am worried that our economy is headed in the wrong direction." An additional 40 percent "agree somewhat," while only 11 percent disagreed. Against this backdrop, it was no great surprise that this past holiday season was the worst in five years. While Wal-Mart was able to post barely positive year-on-year results, it seemed that nothing could break through the general mood we've been calling "LifeRage." We're in a prolonged war, all the economic indicators are negative, we're not sure that the remaining candidates for President can produce the kind of change we all seem to long for -- indeed, what was there to celebrate? This malaise has carried on into the new year, with no end in sight.

Beyond the controlling mood, there are a series of underlying trends driving spending behavior:

Cashing Out
Those seeking greater fulfillment in life are shifting from conspicuous to conscientious consumption, looking for a life of goodness vs. a life of stuff. It's clear the latter has not served us particularly well, as we are seeing a tenfold increase in cases of clinical depression. Make no mistake; this is not just about charitable giving. Increasingly, consumers are voting with their purses based on an evaluation of a company's practices -- its own giving, as well as sourcing of materials, labor and manufacturing practices; the whole spectrum of corporate behavior. A 2006 study by Cone Communications, the leaders in "Cause Branding," discovered that even among the notoriously fickle Millennial generation, 89 percent are likely or very likely to switch from one brand to another (price and quality being equal) if the second brand is associated with a good cause. Their earlier work had shown similar effects with other cohorts.

Q. The global economy has faced a great amount of turbulence in the past year; what impact do you believe this is having on consumers and the retail environment?
A. As our economy becomes more economically interdependent, beyond the concerns of our own economic direction, the broader global economy is undoubtedly an additional pressure on our economic outlook, our attitude toward spending -- both whether we spend and on what.

One movement we've been watching with great interest is the appeal of "simplicity." As conspicuous consumption's allure continues to wane, as inner vs. outer-directed satisfaction becomes the preference, consumers seem to be attracted to products and brands that are true to their essence, in preference to those that rely on "flash."

In terms of retail environment, we think one of the most interesting newcomers to the U.S. this year is the Japanese Muji. Look at this statement of purpose from their Web site: MUJI: It's about designing your own life -- not someone else's. It's a belief that simple is better than complicated. And it's the knowledge that real simplicity is always the result of openness and honesty. MUJI products spring from a commitment to moderation in all things except quality -- and from the confident awareness that modesty and discretion are, together, the better part of style.

They follow in the footsteps of Uniqlo, another Japanese retailer who has expanded globally, now beyond basic clothing and furnishings to simple housing in Japan.

Q. What consumer behaviors do you believe will influence the gourmet industry?
A. I'm as bullish about the gourmet industry as any I can think of in the coming year. I see the industry as perfectly poised against a series of Trends that auger well for its future:

Being Alive
We're seeing ever more scrutiny of the food we eat. Fears abound, the food system principal among them. Look no further than the fact that Michael Pollan's In Defense of Food, is No. 1 on The New York Times bestseller list. There is a perception that gourmet offerings drive quality up a notch, relative to what's available in the supermarket. And that's going to be a very powerful appeal.

Fantasy Adventure
We're looking for the simple, attainable escape. Food can provide that, and we won't find it at the grocery. Gourmet can drive the quest. Artisanal, foreign, new flavors; they will all matter more.

Cocooning
We're going to continue to see the home be the center of our universe. It's safe, it's familiar, it is the unique expression of ourselves. We'll see more entertaining at home -- it's no accident that even as we see the stalling of retail overall, we're seeing investments in consumer electronics, driven by big screen TVs and home theatres. Food is going to be an important part of the premium experience at home -- gourmet should be a major source.

Q. How do you see the gourmet industry responding to these influences and what can retailers do to react in a positive manner?
A. Claim your uniqueness, justify your premium, give us more -- don't just be the expensive option; grocery is discovering your space, and threatens to invade/steal it.

Gourmet needs to tell us the "stories" associated with food that comes from off the beaten track. This is a challenge, and a huge opportunity for staff -- grocery can never touch you here.

I look to the gourmet segment to do even more in terms of local sourcing, which is increasingly becoming a new standard for food. If you can't be the farmer's market, provide a rich selection of that increasingly coveted source. Your customers look to you to be a kind of "curator" -- yes, give me exotics, but give me local right alongside of it.

We're also watching the movement to "raw" -- unadulterated, unprocessed, just as it exists in nature. Gourmet could stake an important claim in this segment as well.

Comments? mmoran@gourmetretailer.com